Cooperation and Dependence in Belarus-Russia Relations

The relationship between Belarus and Russia is unique and complex. At first glance, their similarities are numerous. Their ties are based on a shared history and language, a deep cultural affinity, legal agreements that codify a strategic partnership, intertwined economies, and shared threat perceptions of the West in general and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in particular. The two governments are led by highly personalist regimes that have decades of experience managing the partnership and share a similar and nostalgic view of the Soviet Union. There is a great deal of convergence across many policies. However, this relationship is not one between equals, nor is it entirely harmonious. The watershed year in the relationship was 2020, when Belarus's ability to offset Russian demands diminished. Through a combination of violent crackdowns on protests that year, alarming its neighbors via a migrant crisis in 2021, and allowing its territory to be used to launch a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Belarus has found itself increasingly isolated and unable to push back on most Russian requests. For Belarus's neighbors, managing the relationship with Minsk is now a challenge as ties (and mutual dependence) between Minsk and Moscow grow stronger. In this report, the authors outline areas of convergence and divergence in the Belarus-Russia relationship. They also consider the regional perspectives of Belarus's neighbors--Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, and Ukraine--and how the Belarus-Russia relationship poses an evolving threat to those neighbors' security.

Author: Dara Massicot, Michelle Grisé, Kotryna Jukneviciute, Marta Kepe, Casey Mahoney, Krystyna Marcinek, Yuliya Shokh, Mark Stalczynski

Publisher: Rand Corporation

Publication Date: Aug 31, 2024

Number of Pages: 243 pages

Language: English

Binding: Paperback

ISBN-10: 1977412998

ISBN-13: 9781977412997